Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Research #241. The Research tracks the technical situation of sixteen of the bigger market cap cryptocurrencies. Each week the Research will spotlight the technical modifications of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I observe in addition to highlights on noteworthy strikes in particular person Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Previous publications together with the Weekly ETF Research will be accessed by paid subscribers through The Market’s Compass Substack Weblog.
An evidence of my goal Particular person Technical Rankings and Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose “crypto candy 16”. What follows is a Cliff Notes model* of the total clarification…
*The technical rating system is a quantitative method that makes use of a number of technical issues that embrace however aren’t restricted to development, momentum, measurements of accumulation/distribution and relative energy. The TR of every particular person Cryptocurrency can vary from 0 to 50. The Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating or “SSTTR” is the sum of the sixteen particular person TRs and will be considered as an overbought / oversold indicator in addition to a affirmation / non-confirmation indicator.
The Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating rose +56.14% to 457.5 final week from 293 the earlier week. Final week’s SSTTR studying was the very best since October of final yr.
Final week all however one of many Candy Sixteen TRs gained floor, with 9 marking double digit positive aspects. 4 of the Crypto Foreign money TRs ended the week within the “inexperienced zone” (TRs between 35 and 50) and twelve had been within the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5). That was a marked enchancment from the earlier week when just one (Bitcoin) ended that week within the “inexperienced zone”, eight had been within the “blue zone” and 7 had been within the “purple zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The Common TR acquire on the week was +10.28, greater than reversing the earlier week’s Common TR lack of -4.34 and the Common TR loss three weeks in the past -3.03.
The Relative Rotation Graph, generally known as RRGs, was developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a singular visualization device for relative energy evaluation. Chartists can use RRGs to investigate the relative energy traits of a number of securities in opposition to a standard benchmark, (on this case the CCi30 Index*) and in opposition to one another over any given interval (within the case beneath, each day) over the previous two weeks. The ability of RRG is its means to plot relative efficiency on one graph and present true rotation. All RRGs charts use 4 quadrants to outline the 4 phases of a relative development. The Optuma RRG charts rotates from Main (in inexperienced) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Enhancing (in blue) and again to Main (in inexperienced). True rotations will be seen as securities transfer from one quadrant to the opposite over time. That is solely a quick clarification of find out how to interpret RRG charts. To be taught extra, see the postscripts and hyperlinks on the finish of this Weblog.
*The CCi30 Index is a registered trademark and was created and is maintained by an unbiased group of mathematicians, quants and fund managers lead by Igor Rivin. It’s a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the general development, each day and long-term motion of the blockchain sector. It does so by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding steady cash (extra particulars will be discovered at CCi30.com).
The chart beneath has two weeks, or 14 days, of relative knowledge factors vs. the benchmark, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not the entire Candy Sixteen are plotted on this RRG Chart. I’ve performed this for readability functions. These which I imagine are of upper technical curiosity stay.
Dogecoin (DOGE) received off to a gradual begin however per week in the past final Tuesday it began its sharp advance out of the Enhancing Quadrant exhibiting sturdy upside Relative Energy Momentum (observe the gap between the each day nodes) because it tracked greater within the Main Quadrant till it rolled over in the midst of final week. Regardless of the lack of Relative Energy Momentum, it held onto the “pole place” on a Relative Energy foundation vs. the CCi30 Index on the finish of the week (see the Tabulation Desk beneath). Cosmos (ATOM) made a 3 Quadrant U-turn out of the Main Quadrant, falling via the Weakening Quadrant at accelerating clip, ending the week within the Lagging Quadrant. Stellar (XLM) fell straight out of the Main Quadrant and into the Lagging Quadrant at the beginning of Could exhibiting damaging Relative Energy Momentum and on the finish of final week it registered the worst Relative Energy Ratio of the Candy Sixteen.
The “Tabulation Desk” beneath marks the Relative Energy and Relative Energy Momentum readings of the Candy Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index on the finish of final week and the 2 previous weeks. If there was an enchancment in both the Relative Energy Ratio or the Relative Energy Momentum studying because the previous week, I’ve highlighted it in inexperienced. If there was a contraction in both it’s highlighted in purple and an unchanged studying in both will stay black. The colour-coding system has served as a warmth map over the previous three weeks highlighting both the continued enchancment, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies which might be within the feedback beneath the RRG chart are highlighted in blue.
*Friday Could 1st to Friday Could eighth
The CCi30 Index, The Candy Sixteen Index and all of the Candy Sixteen registered absolute value positive aspects over the previous seven days. Final week the common absolute proportion acquire was +6.81% vs. the common proportion loss the week earlier than of -1.37%. Each weekly common positive aspects and losses exclude the 2 Indexes.
The Technical Situation Elements or TCFs are utilized within the calculation of the Particular person Crypto Currencies Technical Rankings. What’s proven within the excel panel beneath is the whole TCFs of all sixteen TRs. A couple of TCFs carry extra weight than the others, such because the Weekly Pattern Issue and the Weekly Momentum Think about compiling every particular person TR of every of the 16 Cryptocurrencies. Due to that, the excel sheet beneath calculates every issue’s weekly studying as a proportion of the potential complete.
A full clarification of my Technical Situation Elements go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose Crypto Candy 16
The Every day Momentum Technical Situation Issue or “DMTCF” bounced again to an virtually overbought studying of 86.61% studying or 97 out of a potential 112 from 39.29% or 44 two weeks in the past which was drop from the studying three weeks in the past of 71.34%.
As a affirmation device, if all eight TCFs enhance on per week over week foundation, extra of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are enhancing internally on a technical foundation, confirming a broader market transfer greater (consider an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if extra of the TCFs fall on per week over week foundation, extra of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical foundation confirming the broader market transfer decrease. Final week all eight of the TCFs moved greater, confirming the rally within the broad-based crypto foreign money market.
The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight goal Technical Situation Elements into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and eight.
The CCi30 Index ended the week at the most effective stage (12,310.30) because the finish of January. On an intra-week foundation, it caught its head above potential value resistance at April 11, 2025, P2 value pivot low however pulled again late within the week. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index, which I highlighted final week, accurately hinted on the upcoming value advance by not notching a decrease low when value did (yellow dashed line) is monitoring greater above its sign line. Longer-term MACD additionally confirms the flip in value momentum because it tracks greater above its sign line. That mentioned, it stays deep in damaging territory. The Whole Candy Sixteen Technical Situation Issue has confirmed the beginning of what could also be a transfer away from key assist on the 10,200.00 stage by reaching the most effective stage since October third of final yr. The 5-Week Shifting Common of the Oscillator (redline) is monitoring greater and the 21-Week Shifting Common (blue line) is starting to show up. A follow-through to the rally that may overtake the 12,380.00 will subsequent goal the Kijun Plot (inexperienced line) and the Higher Parallel (stable gold line) of the Customary Pitchfork (gold P1 via P3).
As we speak’s Crypto Candy Sixteen Research is subtitled Lastly Out of the Wooden’s? There’s a query mark on the finish of that as a result of there are nonetheless just a few technical hurdles that the Index must vault above. Saing that, Tuesday’s rally out three-month base constructing value sample (yellow field) is a significant step in the proper course. Key to this being a bona fide escape is that earlier value resistance on the 11,910.00 stage should maintain as newly potential value assist and that the Kijun Plot (inexperienced line) shouldn’t be violated. MACD confirms the newly found value momentum and is rising above its sign line in constructive territory. The 8-Day Stochastic Momentum Index has begun to stall at what has been an over-sold stage throughout the basing value sample however throughout earlier rallies it has reached the 75.0 stage (not proven right here). The Candy Sixteen Every day Momentum / Breadth Oscillator raped it head on the nonetheless falling 45-Day Exponential Shifting Common (blue line) however has not printed a decrease low and the shorter-term 5-Day Shifting Common (purple line) is stabilizing.
Key to the terminus of the base-building technical thesis is that costs maintain the important thing assist on the 11,910.00 stage and the Kijun Plot at 11,675.00.
For readers who’re unfamiliar with the technical phrases or instruments referred to within the feedback on the technical situation of the CCi30 Index can avail themselves of a quick tutorial titled, Instruments of Technical Evaluation out there on my web site.
Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software program permits the Technical Rankings to be calculated and again examined.
To obtain a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software program go to…