Robinhood inventory rebounds as Bernstein sees 80% upside

Robinhood inventory recovered greater than 2% on Thursday after Bernstein maintained its $160 goal, betting that tokenization and prediction markets can offset weaker crypto buying and selling.

Robinhood inventory rebounds from $83.68

Robinhood Markets shares traded at $88.55 on Friday, up roughly 2.25% after transferring between $83.68 and $89.48 throughout the session. Regardless of the rebound, HOOD remained about 26% beneath its July excessive close to $120.

HOOD had closed Wednesday at $89.84 earlier than coming below renewed promoting strain. Thursday’s restoration saved the inventory above its 200-day easy transferring common at roughly $86.52, a degree that would decide whether or not the current decline develops right into a deeper correction.

Bernstein maintained its Outperform score and $160 worth goal following Robinhood’s second-quarter outcomes. From Thursday’s closing worth, the goal represents potential upside of about 81%.

Goldman Sachs additionally retained a Purchase score however lowered its 12-month goal from $137 to $118. The revised goal nonetheless implies greater than 33% upside, although it displays a extra cautious outlook for near-term progress.

Robinhood reported second-quarter internet income of $1.31 billion, up 32% from $989 million a yr earlier. The end result exceeded analysts’ consensus estimate of roughly $1.26 billion.

Prediction markets overtake crypto income

Bernstein’s bullish case rests partly on Robinhood’s growth past typical inventory and cryptocurrency buying and selling. The brokerage recognized prediction markets, tokenized shares and blockchain infrastructure as longer-term income drivers.

Robinhood’s Rothera change went reside in June and has processed greater than 3.5 billion contracts. Round 2.1 billion contracts modified arms throughout the second quarter, producing $17 million in income.

Complete event-contract income reached $156 million throughout the quarter, exceeding the $100 million generated by crypto buying and selling. Bernstein described Rothera because the third-largest U.S. change in its class.

The figures present that prediction markets have gotten a bigger a part of Robinhood’s enterprise as weaker digital-asset exercise weighs on transaction income. Bernstein reduce its estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 crypto buying and selling income by 49% to replicate decrease market volumes.

Commenting on how Rothera may develop, Bernstein analysts stated:

“Administration expects a larger share of prediction market stream emigrate to Rothera over time, whereas persevering with to distribute occasion contracts from third-party exchanges and retaining the longer-term optionality to supply Rothera as a B2B platform for different FCMs.”

That technique would enable Robinhood to earn income from its personal change whereas persevering with to distribute contracts provided by exterior venues. A future business-to-business providing may additionally present entry to different futures fee retailers, although that is still a longer-term possibility moderately than a confirmed income.

Tokenization turns into a second progress pillar

Bernstein additionally pointed to Robinhood Chain, Bitstamp, Robinhood Earn and tokenized shares as proof that the corporate is growing infrastructure past its retail brokerage.

Robinhood Chain has recorded greater than $12 billion in decentralized change quantity and processed over 150 million transactions since its launch. Robinhood Earn has attracted greater than $200 million in deposits.

Inventory Tokens can be found by Robinhood Pockets in additional than 120 nations, extending the corporate’s tokenization enterprise exterior america. The service offers eligible worldwide customers blockchain-based publicity to listed securities, whereas U.S. buyers proceed to entry typical shares by Robinhood’s regulated brokerage platform.

Robinhood has additionally opened its Agentic Buying and selling platform to its full buyer base. The system lets prospects join synthetic intelligence brokers by Robinhood’s Mannequin Context Protocol server and assign particular investing duties.

These merchandise widen Robinhood’s addressable market, however in addition they introduce execution and regulatory dangers. Tokenized securities can face totally different possession, disclosure, and investor-protection guidelines throughout jurisdictions, whereas prediction markets stay below scrutiny from U.S. federal and state authorities.

HOOD should reclaim $96 to strengthen restoration

Robinhood’s each day chart stays technically weak regardless of Thursday’s rebound. HOOD is buying and selling beneath its 20-day transferring common at $103.79, its 50-day common at $96.67, and its 100-day common at $99.30.

The cluster between $96.67 and $103.79 creates a broad resistance space. A detailed above the 50-day common can be the primary signal that consumers are regaining management, whereas a transfer above $103.79 may reopen a path towards the July vary between $110 and $120.

Bear-bull energy stood at minus 20.01, displaying that sellers nonetheless maintain the near-term benefit. Damaging bars have additionally expanded throughout the newest retreat, suggesting that Thursday’s bounce has not but reversed the broader lack of momentum.

On the draw back, the 200-day transferring common close to $86.52 supplies speedy assist. HOOD briefly traded beneath that degree earlier than recovering, making the $83.68 intraday low the following degree to look at if promoting resumes.

A sustained break beneath $83.68 may expose the June consolidation space round $75 to $80. Conversely, holding above the 200-day common and reclaiming $96.67 would enhance the technical outlook.

Bernstein’s $160 goal relies on Robinhood changing newer merchandise into sturdy income as crypto buying and selling slows. For U.S. buyers, the following check can be whether or not prediction markets and tokenization can proceed increasing with out tighter regulation limiting their contribution.