Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Research #223. The Research tracks the technical situation of sixteen of the bigger market cap cryptocurrencies. Each week the Research will spotlight the technical modifications of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I observe in addition to highlights on noteworthy strikes in particular person Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. As all the time, paid subscribers will obtain this week’s unabridged Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Research despatched to their registered e-mail Sundays*. Previous publications together with the Weekly ETF Research could be accessed by paid subscribers through The Market’s Compass Substack Weblog.
With apologies, as a result of journey commitments of the writer, in the present day’s publication of this week’s Research was delayed.
An evidence of my goal Particular person Technical Rankings and Candy Sixteen Complete Technical Rating go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose “crypto candy 16”. What follows is a Cliff Notes model* of the total clarification…
*The technical rating system is a quantitative method that makes use of a number of technical issues that embody however usually are not restricted to pattern, momentum, measurements of accumulation/distribution and relative energy. The TR of every particular person Cryptocurrency can vary from 0 to 50.
The Candy Sixteen Complete Technical Rating rose sharply final weeklast week, up +103.97% to 308 from 151 the earlier week which was up +3.42% from 146 the week earlier than that.
All of the Candy Sixteen made positive factors of their TRs final week vs. the earlier week when seven marked positive factors of their TRs, and 9 moved decrease. The typical Candy Sixteen TR achieve was +9.81, vs. the typical TR achieve of +0.31 the earlier week. As soon as once more for the twelfth week in a row there have been zero TRs within the inexperienced zone final week. That mentioned, 13 of the Candy Sixteen TRs find yourself rising into the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5) from the “pink zone” (TRs between 0 and 15) in a really spectacular affirmation of the broader market rally with Uniswap (UNI) and Tron (TRX) holding their floor within the “blue zone”. The earlier week two have been within the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5) and fourteen have been within the “pink zone” (TRs between 0 and 15).
*The CCi30 Index is a registered trademark and was created and is maintained by an impartial crew of mathematicians, quants and fund managers lead by Igor Rivin. It’s a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the general development, day by day and long-term motion of the blockchain sector. It does so by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding secure cash (extra particulars could be discovered at CCi30.com).
The chart beneath has two weeks, or 14 days, of relative knowledge factors vs. the benchmark, (the CCi30 Index) on the middle, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not the entire Candy Sixteen are plotted on this RRG Chart. I’ve performed this for readability functions. These which I consider are of upper technical curiosity stay.
Uniswap (UNI) has been and is noteworthy as shall be seen not solely right here however within the “Tabulation Desk” beneath. UNI went on to new Relative Energy excessive on Monday of final week (a ratio to the benchmark of the CCi30 Index of 108.6) till Relative Energy Momentum started to “soften away” because it rolled over within the Main Quadrant leaving it solely sooner or later of contracting Relative Energy Momentum from getting into the Weakening Quadrant. That mentioned it nonetheless holds the “pole place” of the perfect Relative Energy vs the Index at 107 as of final Friday. Avalanche (AVAX) has made a 3 Quadrant transfer, rising out of the Lagging Quadrant, driving by the Bettering Quadrant final week to shut Friday within the Main Quadrant. Polkadot (DOT) has escaped the Laging Quadrant after a fast turnaround within the Lagging Quadrant and exhibited optimistic Relative Energy Momentum on the finish of final week (notice the gap between the day by day nodes) because it rises in the Bettering Quadrant.
The “Tabulation Desk” beneath marks the Relative Energy and Relative Energy Momentum readings of the Candy Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index on the finish of final week and the 2 previous weeks. If there was an enchancment in both the Relative Energy Ratio or the Relative Energy Momentum studying for the reason that previous week, I’ve highlighted it in inexperienced. If there was a contraction in each it’s highlighted in pink and an unchanged studying in both will stay black. The colour-coding system has served as a warmth map over the previous three weeks highlighting both the continued enchancment, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies which might be within the feedback beneath the RRG chart are highlighted in blue.
*Friday December twenty sixth to Friday January 2nd.
All Candy Sixteen gained floor over the previous seven days, 4 of which marked double-digit absolute value positive factors. Of these 4, Polkadot (DOT) led the pack, up +25.61% including to its +9.74% achieve the week earlier than (day by day chart posted beneath). The week earlier than solely three gained absolute floor and 13 misplaced absolute floor. Final week the typical absolute proportion achieve was +9.81% vs. the week earlier than when the typical absolute achieve was +0.31%. Each weekly common strikes exclude the 2 Indexes.
Though not posted on the chart Polkadot closed the week at 2.1643.
The Technical Situation Elements or TCFs are utilized within the calculation of the Particular person Crypto Currencies Technical Rankings. What’s proven within the excel panel beneath is the overall TCFs of all sixteen TRs. A couple of TCFs carry extra weight than the others, such because the Weekly Development Issue and the Weekly Momentum Consider compiling every particular person TR of every of the 16 Cryptocurrencies. Due to that, the excel sheet beneath calculates every issue’s weekly studying as a proportion of the attainable complete.
A full clarification of my Technical Situation Elements go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and choose Crypto Candy 16.
The Every day Momentum Technical Situation Issue or “DMTCF” rose to 98.21% or 110 out of a attainable 112 (marking an overbought situation in Every day Momentum for the primary time since September) from 48.21% or 54 on the finish of earlier week when it rose after 4 weeks of declines.
As a affirmation device, if all eight TCFs enhance on per week over week foundation, extra of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are enhancing internally on a technical foundation, confirming a broader market transfer larger (consider an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if extra of the TCFs fall on per week over week foundation, extra of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical foundation confirming the broader market transfer decrease. Final week seven of the TCFs rose and one was unchanged, confirming the broad-based rally within the Crypto markets.
*The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight goal Technical Situation Elements into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and eight.
On the finish of final week, the CCi30 Index, which had rallied +6.88% over the earlier seven days, was difficult first resistance on the 15,265.00 degree (on the time of publication the Index was above that degree). The Complete Technical Situation Issue has escaped oversold territory the place it was trapped below the shorter-term 5-Week Transferring Common (pink line) which till the top of final week had been in a gradual down pattern since late August. A comply with by to final week’s flip in value and advance by the Tenkan Plot (stable pink line) which is at 16,241, would counsel that the downtrend in weekly costs has reversed and on the very least a measurable countertrend rally has begun.
The Every day chart of the CCi30 Index provides the long-suffering Crypto bulls a ray of hope that the downtrend in costs could have run its course (at the least briefly). For 2 weeks the Index had been trapped in a sideways buying and selling vary till Friday’s breakout and shut above the 14,705 degree. With that, the Index closed the week proper on the Higher Parallel (stable inexperienced line) of the longer-term Normal Pitchfork (inexperienced P1-P3) and just under the Decrease Warning Line (gold LWL) of the shorter-term Normal Pitchfork (gold P1 by P3). These two Pitchfork options, plus the underside of the Cloud shall be a cluster of key resistance however as each the Stochastic Momentum Index and MACD counsel there’s a flip in value momentum that signifies that if that degree is overtaken the resistance at 15,920 may very well be challenged.
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